Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 November 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Nov 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 08/0004Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 07/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2066 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (09
Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 068 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 026/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 031/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 029/040-023/032-019/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 50% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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