Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 December 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2017 Dec 14 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Dec 2017	072	009
15 Dec 2017	072	013
16 Dec 2017	072	027

Bulletin

The Sun only produced three low B flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth- directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR gradually decreased from about 480 to about 420 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was directed away from the Sun and its magnitude ranged between about 2 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A high speed stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive in the second half of December 15 or early on December 16. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 14 and the first half of December 15. Active to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes 4 or 5) are possible in the second half of December 15 and on December 16, with a slight chance for moderate geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Dec 2017

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	072
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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