Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 December 2018

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2018 Dec 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Dec 2018	072	003
16 Dec 2018	072	013
17 Dec 2018	072	013

Bulletin

A new beta region, NOAA 2731, emerged in the past 24 hours. The Sun did not produce any B flares or brighter in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 300 and 390 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 2 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A weak solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity, equatorial-South polar coronal hole is expected to arrive near Earth on December 16.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 1; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 15. There is a chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) on December 16 and 17, related to the expected arrival of a weak solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity, equatorial-South polar coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 007, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Dec 2018

Wolf number Catania	011
10cm solar flux	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	011 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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