Viewing archive of Friday, 8 March 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/0319Z from Region 2734 (N08W17). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 07/2103Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2983 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Mar, 10 Mar)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (11 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 072 Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 08 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 008/008-006/008-022/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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