Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 May 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2019 May 18 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 May 2019	070	015
19 May 2019	070	017
20 May 2019	070	007

Bulletin

The Sun produced no flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 10%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR jumped from about 380 to 430 km/s around 1:25 UT on May 18, accompanied by a drop in temperature from about 150000 to 20000 K and a drop in density from about 9 to 2 particles per cc. This could correspond to the arrival of the May 13 CME. The solar wind speed varied between about 360 and 455 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 410 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 3 and 8 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible on May 18 and 19.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on May 18 and 19, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). A return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels is expected on May 20.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 17 May 2019

Wolf number Catania	013
10cm solar flux	072
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	014 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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