Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 October 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2019 Oct 22 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Oct 2019	065	005
23 Oct 2019	065	013
24 Oct 2019	065	046

Bulletin

Solar X ray flux remained below B level throughout the period. There are no active regions on disk and X-ray flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Around midnight a filament erupted from the South-Eastern quadrant as visible in SDO/AIA 304 images. STEREOA/COR2 images (data up to 4:24 UT) do not show a corresponding CME. We are awaiting further coronagraph images to assess the eruption more properly. There were otherwise no Earth-directed CME's detected in coronagraph images.

Solar high energy proton fluxes were at background levels and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind conditions were near nominal, with Solar wind speed increasing only slightly from around 330 to around 360 km/s and total magnetic field remaining below 5nT. The magnetic field phi angle was mainly in the negative sector. It is unlikely that we would still see some enhancements due to the negative polarity coronal hole reported on October 17. Solar wind is expected to remain near nominal over the next 24 hours, but is expected to increase significantly by October 24 due to the recurrent high speed stream from the equatorial positive polarity coronal hole reported yesterday.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-2) and are expected to remain quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours. By October 24, associated to the expected high speed stream, geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active levels and periods of minor geomagentic storming. There is a chance that moderate storm levels (K=6) be reached.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Oct 2019

Wolf number Catania	000
10cm solar flux	064
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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