Viewing archive of Friday, 10 January 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 09/0448Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/0923Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 617 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jan, 12 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 073 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 073/072/072 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 006/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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