Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 22/1730Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 152 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (24 Sep) and unsettled levels on day three (25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 072 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 008/010-010/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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