Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 312 km/s at 11/0906Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/0943Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
11/0036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 780 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 073 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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