Viewing archive of Friday, 13 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Nov,
15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 13/0341Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/2354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 221 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 082 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 082/080/078 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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