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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 22/0927Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 22/1049Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/2212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 22/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1002 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Nov 088
  Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 090/092/094
  90 Day Mean        22 Nov 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  019/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  015/018-008/010-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%30%
Minor storm20%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm60%40%45%

All times in UTC

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