Viewing archive of Friday, 4 December 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2020 Dec 04 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Dec 2020	102	015
05 Dec 2020	098	011
06 Dec 2020	098	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with the largest flare of the period a C1.4 flare peaking at 23:59UT from NOAA AR 2790. There are 3 spotted regions on disk all of simple alpha configuration. A new region has also rotated over the South East limb but as far as currently visible it appears simple and spotless. Further C flares are probable.

There were no new Earth directed CME's observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10MeV proton flux are now still only weakly enhanced (max 1 pfu), with a general decaying trend. The greater than 2MeV electron flux did only briefly exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the diurnal maximum. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next days. A rise is possible should we see a glancing blow of the December 1 CME.

Accuracy of current DSCOVR measurements of Solar wind density, speed and temperature, seem to suffer from low density conditions. Based also on ACE measurement Earth is believed to be in a nominal slow Solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was around a nominal 5nT with a variable and unremarkable North-South orientation. The phi angle was mostly in the negative sector (towards the Sun). Essentially nominal Solar wind conditions are expected with still a slight chance for perturbations associated to a possible glancing blow of the December 1 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions could possibly become active or show minor geomagnetic storm conditions should a glancing blow from the December 1 CME still occur.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 034, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Dec 2020

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	040 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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