Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 02/0110Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 02/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 262 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 May, 04 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 May).
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 072 Predicted 03 May-05 May 070/070/072 90 Day Mean 02 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 011/012-011/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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