Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 386 km/s at 19/0701Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
19/0712Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
19/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 May,
21 May, 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 076 Predicted 20 May-22 May 074/073/073 90 Day Mean 19 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 007/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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