Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0033Z from Region 2849 (S27E25). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 406 km/s at 23/2254Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/0413Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/1328Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 084 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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