Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0218Z from Region 2880 (N29E43). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct,
02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 28/2147Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 449 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (02 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 102 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 011/012-018/024-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 70% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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