Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (06 Oct) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 04/2203Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/1830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
05/1324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 248 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Oct, 08
Oct) and quiet levels on day two (07 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 082 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 007/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/03/30 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/04/09 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/04/03 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (3%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| April 2026 | 118.8 +32.8 |
| Last 30 days | 102.1 +47 |
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