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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 13/0323Z from Region 2962 (N27W49). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 13/1047Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 13/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 13/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 583 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 123
  Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  020/034
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  020/030-015/020-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%20%
Minor storm35%30%05%
Major-severe storm25%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm15%20%30%
Major-severe storm80%65%25%

All times in UTC

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