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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
30/1737Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 425 km/s at 30/0223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/2041Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 29/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (02 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (31 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 151 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 009/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 032/058-025/032-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 70% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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