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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
17/2234Z from Region 2992 (S31W76). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20
Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 18/0234Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 17/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
18/0926Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1646 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Apr,
20 Apr, 21 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Apr 135 Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 18 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 009/010-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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