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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 18/0020Z from Region 3035 (S18E01). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 645 km/s at 17/2343Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0643Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1413 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 140
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 141/137/134
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  014/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%

All times in UTC

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