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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
20/0618Z from Region 3038 (N15W07). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (21 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 20/1624Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/0735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2970 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (23 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (21 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 137 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 135/125/121 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 006/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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