Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 September 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Sep 03 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Sep 2022	130	029
04 Sep 2022	128	040
05 Sep 2022	126	024

Bulletin

NOAA AR 3089 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) has produced numerous C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The strongest was a C3.8 flare peaking at 17:16 UT on 2 September. More C-class flares can be expected, and M-class flares are possible.

A CME of about 70 degrees angular width and speed around 670 km/s was detected at 19:24 UT on 2 September. The CME originated from a filament eruption in the southeastern quadrant of the Sun, close to AR 3093. It is mostly directed to the south, but a glancing blow at the Earth is possible on 5 September.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is below the 10 pfu mark, and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at the Earth was mostly slow in the last 24 hours around 450 km/s, with an interplanetary magnetic field about 10 nT. Around midnight, there was a period of several hours of negative Bz and a sector boundary crossing, in which the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field changed from towards to away (negative to positive). Around 08 UT, the solar wind speed started to increase, and it is now close to 550 km/s, most likely marking an early arrival of the high speed solar wind from an equatorial positive polarity coronal hole, that was expected for tomorrow.

Active conditions were detected locally (K_Dourbes up to 4) and minor storm conditions at planetary levels (Kp up to 5). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	061 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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