Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
09/1427Z from Region 3112 (N22W28). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 09/1758Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/0603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/0138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (11 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 161 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 017/020-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Latest forum messages
Sunspot region 4274 509AR 14274 CMES @ 09/11/25 0800 UTC & 10/11/25 @ 10/11/25 @ 1000UTC 37Unspecified geomagnetic activity 3297X1.21 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm? 1Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 2140
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| Last X-flare | 2025/11/10 | X1.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/11/07 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/11/08 | Kp6+ (G2) |
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