Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 October 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Oct 12 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Oct 2022	150	007
13 Oct 2022	148	007
14 Oct 2022	146	007

Bulletin

There are four active regions on the visible disc. NOAA ARs 3112 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) and 3119 (beta magnetic field configuration) drove the solar activity in the past 24 hours with C-class flaring. The strongest was a C6.1 flare, peaking at 18:19 UT on 11 October, from AR 3112. More C-class flares, and possibly M-class flares, are expected for the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been above the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours, it is expected to decrease in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at the Earth has decreased in the last 24 hours to about 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has been around 5 nT. In the next 24 hours, similar conditions are expected.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (Kp up to 2 and K_Dourbes up to 3). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 100, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	144
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	098 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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