Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/1256Z from Region 3150 (N22W55). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov,
22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 19/0930Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 19/1001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 115 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 019/030-020/026-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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