Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
22/0727Z from Region 3151 (S19E05). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 21/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
22/0631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
21/2212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 304 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 116 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 118/118/118 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 008/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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