Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 359 km/s at 24/2024Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
24/2017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/1957Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and
unsettled to active levels on day three (27 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 110 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 013/015-012/012-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 45% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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