Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 February 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Feb 02 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Feb 2023	134	011
03 Feb 2023	132	013
04 Feb 2023	130	007

Bulletin

There are six active regions visible on the solar disc, all of them with simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours, with several C-class flares detected. The strongest one was a C5.8 flare from NOAA AR 3204, peaking at 22:48 UTC on 1 February. This active region is rotating out of view over the west limb. Further C class flaring is expected.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. LASCO C2 data is not available since 28 January. STEREO-COR2 data shows a wide CME at 09:38 UT on 1 February after a data gap, this CME is erupting from the NW limb and not expected to affect the Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

There was a weak forward shock in the L1 solar wind data at 15:40 UTC on 1 February. The solar wind speed jumped from 348 to 369 km/s, the magnetic field went from 4 to 6 nT after the shock, and reached 11 nT later (with Bz briefly down to -10 nT). The driver of the shock was probably the mild high speed solar wind stream expected to arrive, reaching solar wind speeds about 100 km/s faster than before the shock. The interplanetary magnetic field has a negative polarity on the ecliptic plane (towards the Sun). Slightly disturbed solar wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels both locally and at planetary levels (K_Dourbes and Kp up to 4). Mostly unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	094
10cm solar flux	134
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	073 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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