Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/2226Z from Region 3254 (S24W28). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (16 Mar) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 15/0435Z. Total IMF
reached 26 nT at 15/0502Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 15/0435Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 21 pfu at 15/0425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (18
Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 136 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 138/145/142 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 019/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 021/025-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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