Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/0337Z from Region 3372 (N25W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul,
25 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 22/1728Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 21/2223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at
21/2223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 173 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (23 Jul, 25
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (24 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 174 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 008/008-009/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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