Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 September 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 03/0836Z from Region 3413 (N10W0*). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 02/2104Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/2305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 836 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Sep 131
  Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 130/135/130
  90 Day Mean        03 Sep 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  025/038
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  020/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  010/012-011/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm30%30%15%

All times in UTC

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