Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/1909Z from Region 3225. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep,
10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 06/2329Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Sep, 10
Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (09 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 161 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 155/158/155 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/010-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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