Viewing archive of Friday, 6 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/1817Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct,
09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 05/2235Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 06/0146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/0226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 439 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (09
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 155 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 156/156/158 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 016/018-009/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 35% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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