Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/0458Z from Region 3451 (N16, L=304). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct,
15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 352 km/s at 12/1646Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
12/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/2223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (15 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 157 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 156/155/155 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 009/012-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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