Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/1633Z from Region 3464 (N04W06). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 497 km/s at 14/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 145 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 145/140/135 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 008/005-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 35% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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