Viewing archive of Monday, 13 November 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Nov 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Nov 2023	137	007
14 Nov 2023	135	007
15 Nov 2023	133	014

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are five active regions visible on the disk. Flaring activity has been low, with only minor C-class flaring in the last 24 hours. The strongest one was a C2.2 flare from NOAA AR 3484 (beta magnetic field configuration), peaking at 01:46 UTC. NOAA AR 3483 has a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration while the other regions have simpler beta magnetic field configuration. More C-class flares will occur and M-class flares are possible.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours. There were two wide CMEs directed towards the west on 12 November which are not expected to affect the Earth.

Solar wind

In the last 24 hours, the Earth was under the influence of an ICME corresponding to the 9 November CME (and probably a glancing blow from another CME). Solar wind speed showed a decreasing profile from 500 to 400 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field reaching 11nT, with a period of several hours of Bz reaching -8nT. A return to slow solar wind conditions is expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels, both locally and at planetary levels (NOAA KP 5, K_Bel 5) due to the effects of the ICME arrival. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu, as measured by GOES 16 from 18:00 UT on 12 November until midnight. It may increase over the threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	090 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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