Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
21/1352Z from Region 3492 (N18E50). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov,
24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 21/2044Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 21/0647Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
21/0648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Nov, 23 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 172 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 175/177/180 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 012/014-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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