Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 November 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Nov 25 1300 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Nov 2023	178	022
26 Nov 2023	220	024
27 Nov 2023	270	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 3490 was the source of the flare with the highest output in X-ray over the past 24 hours, the C5.5 flare, which peaked at 24 November 22:20 UT.

Coronal mass ejections

A CME as seen in Lasco C2 on 24 November 10:00 UT is believed to be associated with the M1.1 flare with source region 3489, occurring on 24 November 09:34 UT. The CME has the potential of a glancing blow early 27 of November.

Coronal holes

The mid latitude positive polarity coronal hole is in geo- effective position.

Solar wind

A shock in the solar wind at 07:55 UTC on November 15 marks the arrival of the ICME from November 22. The speed jumped from 490 km/s to 540 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field from 9 to 14 nT. Further high speed stream influences and a possible second ICME arrival (from CME occurring at 22 November 21:12UT) can be expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The arrival of the ICME from November 22 created minor storm geomagnetic conditions globally (Kp 5) and active conditions locally (K_Bel 4). A combination of influences from a high speed stream and a possible second ICME arrival (from CME occurring at 22 November 21:12UT) can be expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below threshold and is expected to most likely remain so over the next 24 hours, but keeping in mind the presence of multiple magnetically complex regions on disk.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu threshold on 24 November 14:15UT, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was close to moderate levels, it is expected to be about moderate levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 182, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	205
10cm solar flux	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	175 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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