Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 November 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Nov 30 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Nov 2023	170	010
01 Dec 2023	168	065
02 Dec 2023	165	058

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low but frequently during the past 24 hours, with NOAA Active Region (AR) 3500 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 65) being the most productive. As it remains magnetically complex, more C-class flares are highly expected, isolated M-class flares are possible, and there is a small chance of a low X-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Solar wind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed gradually dropped from 440 to 330 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 1 and 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was almost exclusively directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. Up to three Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) are expected to arrive as one and likely have a very strong effect in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 1- to 2 and K BEL 0 to 2) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to increase to moderate storm conditions in the next 24 hours as a result of the likely arrival of one or more Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours but it is expected to increase above the 1000 pfu threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to increase to moderate levels in the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 168, based on 03 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	169 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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