Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
03/0806Z from Region 3494 (S17W96). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec,
06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 03/2056Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 02/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/1806Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Dec), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 139 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 136/134/130 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 024/033-014/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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