Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 December 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 23/0914Z from Region 3530 (N08E07). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 23/1113Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/1254Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1065 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 174
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 172/168/165
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

All times in UTC

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