Viewing archive of Monday, 25 December 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 24/2340Z from Region 3529 (S21W25). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 25/1349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/1642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/1722Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Dec 167
  Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec 170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        25 Dec 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Dec  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  006/005-009/010-013/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%25%30%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%20%20%

All times in UTC

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