Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/1018Z from Region 3536 (N06E37). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05
Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 03/1952Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 03/0517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
03/1825Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11 pfu at 03/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 261 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 140 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 009/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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