Viewing archive of Monday, 8 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
07/2225Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 361 km/s at 08/1806Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
08/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 176 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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