Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/1255Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan,
13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 462 km/s at 10/1126Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
10/1849Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
10/1033Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jan, 12 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 186 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 185/185/175 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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