Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 February 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
10/2307Z from Region 3576 (S16W09). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 11/1703Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 11/0156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
11/0313Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 134 pfu at 11/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Feb), active to
major storm levels on day two (13 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (14 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 180 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 182/180/180 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 012/018-025/038-017/023
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 70% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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