Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 February 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
13/0759Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 13/0155Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 13/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1338Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 117 pfu at 13/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (16
Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (14 Feb) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (15
Feb, 16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 195 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 192/192/195 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 020/025-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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