Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 February 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/1707Z from Region 3576 (S16W82). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (16 Feb,
17 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 15/0208Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
15/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/1759Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 14/2305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18
Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (16 Feb, 17 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 35% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 178 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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