Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 February 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
24/0634Z from Region 3590 (N18W01). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26
Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 24/1621Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 24/1952Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
24/1932Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (26 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (27
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 179 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 015/020-010/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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